Modeling the change in the maximum temperature in Shahat region for the period 1961-2099 using SDSM technique
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.36602/faj/2021.n.17.03Keywords:
Climate Change Scenarios, Shah at Meteorological Station, Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM, General Circulation Models (GCMsAbstract
The study aims to know the future of the climate in Libya according to the predictions of General Circulation Models (GCMs) that with average values in large ranges, where the need arose to adopt a system of rang Downsizing techniques in order to convert the climate outputs derived from GCMs to the values based on one meteorological station. In order to achieve the purpose of the study, the researcher uses the analytical quantitative method which fits the study phenomenon, so the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) of the daily maximum temperatures was applied at the meteorological station of Shah at in north-eastern Libya, and the maximum temperatures were predicted for the period (2011 - 2040) (2041-2070) (2071-2099) under different scenarios (A2a) and (B2a). Through this, the magnitude of the variation in the maximum temperature of the Shahat meteor station became clear from month to month and from one scenario to another in relation to the base period (1961-1990).
References
إيف, ساما (2015). التغير المناخي, (ترجمة زينب منعم) مكتبة الملك فهد، الرياض.
الحكومية الدولية المعنية بتغير المناخ (IPCC), (2007).
الكشاف, طارق محمد (2014). نمّذجة التغيرات المناخية في مصر دراسة جغرافية المناخ التطبيقي باستخدام نظم المعلومات الجغرافية والاستشعار من بعد. (رسالة دكتوراه منشورة). جامعة قنا.
الهيئة وحدة الأبحاث المناخية الأمريكية (CRU)
-Ibrahim, Ab. (2015) (Future Changes in Maximum Temperature Events Using the statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) in Zlitan Area-Libya) Al-Asmaria University, College of Marine Resources, Second Conference of Environmental Sciences, pp. 154-160.
Climate Change Scenarios: IPCC story lines, models,downscaling, 1995-2018 by ESS Environmental Software and Services GmbH AUSTRIA. https://www.ess.co.at/METEO/CCS.html
Met office . gov.uk/research / applied -An introduction to the PRECIS system. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/applied/international/precis/introduction.
Robert L. Wilby, and Christian W. -(2007) SDSM 4.2- A decision support tool for the assessment of regional climate change Impacts, User Manual. https://sdsm.org.uk/SDSMManual.pdf
Samireh, S. et al, (2017). Climate Change Prediction of Induced Temperature & Precipitation: The Case of Iran. Sustainability. 9,146,doi:10.3390/su9010146. https://www.researchgate.net/publication DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su9010146
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2021 جمعة الملیان، شرف الدين بن سعيد، عبد الرحمن الغافود

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
All works published in this journal are licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, and redistribution for any purpose, including commercial ones, provided that proper credit is given to the original author and source, a link to the license is provided, and any changes made are indicated.