Analytical Study of Rainfall Patterns, Their Seasonal and Quantitative Changes, and Future Trends in Misurata City from 1944 to 2024

Abstract

The study dealt with research and analysis of rainfall patterns, seasonal and quantitative changes and future trends in the city of Misrata during the rainy season 1944/1945 AD until the rainy season 2023/2024 AD, using statistical analyses and tests that focused on the possibility of predicting future changes and quantities, given its importance in water sustainability and food security, especially in arid and semi-arid regions, and the results showed an average rainfall of 266. 32 mm for the study period. 32 mm for the study period, where the lowest rainfall rate was recorded during the 1969/1970 season (85.7 mm) and the highest rate during the 1980/1981 season (499. The test of the difference between the mean of the study period showed that there is no statistical evidence confirming the difference between the two periods and that the rainfall series is characterised by randomness and not linked to a specific trend, and this was confirmed by the test of sequences of precipitation seasons in the city, and the study also found that the temperature in the winter seasons during rainy periods is colder and lower than the temperature of winters in dry periods, and the study included about 19 climatic cycles. The study included about 19 climatic cycles, including 10 dry climatic cycles with below-average rainfall and 9 rainy climatic cycles with above-average rainfall, characterised by variation in their lengths, and due to the random nature of these cycles, future predictions remain difficult, so the study formulated possible future scenarios for rainfall amounts and identified the main influencing factors, along with a set of recommendations to adapt to and address potential future changes